Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.993885 43.878760 51.484455 60.481271 70.803022 82.243733 95.852542
2024-10-20 29.381545 39.139795 50.992523 66.317893 85.463110 108.435011 137.910555
2024-10-27 21.398632 31.392382 44.510487 62.718799 87.022578 117.994356 160.038089
2024-11-03 18.077014 28.676251 43.479846 65.202230 95.709903 136.396002 193.988582
2024-11-10 15.944576 27.081346 43.491994 68.736690 105.732003 156.954462 231.976839
2024-11-17 14.127054 25.556551 43.244040 71.634965 114.843770 176.670475 269.947791
2024-11-24 12.094011 23.293098 41.479135 71.899445 119.903542 190.766358 300.691317
2024-12-01 10.001513 20.535775 38.495771 69.799604 120.991568 198.891575 323.024069
2024-12-08 8.695259 18.922503 37.139869 70.073927 125.645156 212.472974 354.075635
2024-12-15 7.713507 17.733065 36.326856 71.096179 131.469334 228.087363 388.978926
2024-12-22 6.035677 14.857572 32.076946 65.628048 125.931296 225.236819 394.742390
2024-12-29 5.472727 14.180100 31.825044 67.257982 132.558614 242.329182 433.036741
2025-01-05 4.504997 12.543323 29.703202 65.618693 134.099772 252.452692 462.989165
2025-01-12 4.369524 12.817645 31.538933 71.889805 150.687821 289.524942 540.571565
2025-01-19 3.430331 10.911460 28.468335 68.031482 148.109661 293.311598 562.287009
2025-01-26 3.108692 10.500599 28.592515 70.694985 158.126065 319.922527 624.783298
2025-02-02 2.893636 10.326101 29.222524 74.483909 170.640258 351.810059 698.312941
2025-02-09 2.659788 10.038294 29.531867 77.589456 182.018857 382.291973 770.985501
2025-02-16 2.312297 9.312466 28.639587 77.872791 187.612983 402.282086 825.764903
2025-02-23 1.907265 8.276764 26.764762 75.622981 187.650179 411.635772 861.472847
2025-03-02 1.663183 7.703324 26.007382 75.916931 193.117323 431.776549 918.280520
2025-03-09 1.478925 7.284778 25.601626 77.012230 200.408006 455.912553 983.846288
2025-03-16 1.117739 6.054288 22.612286 71.151574 191.511731 446.952807 985.345716